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Abstract

Protein language models (PLMs) score the effects of amino acid replacements as pseudo-probabilities, which are widely utilised to map protein fitness landscapes. However, because their training data relies on natural amino acid sequences, these models conflate protein structural constraints with nucleotide mutation biases and codon accessibility. Using the rapid emergence of the divergent influenza A H3N2 K lineage as a stress test, we investigate how base PLMs (ESM-2 and ESM-C) versus fine-tuned versions of these models capture mutational processes. We systematically implement a parameter sweep to explicitly couple (or decouple) empirical nucleotide mutational supply from PLM-assessed amino acid substitution pseudo-probabilities across evolutionary forecasting tasks. We find that base PLMs implicitly learn generic nucleotide-level mutational constraints, an effect strongly amplified by virus-specific fine-tuning. Incorporating explicit mutational accessibility significantly improves the binary prediction of observed amino acid changes. Conversely, when predicting the final circulating frequency of variants that have already emerged, adding mutational supply degrades performance, confirming that selection dominates post-emergence dynamics. Additionally, we perform amino-acid-level epistatic scanning to investigate protein structural constraints in the context of genetic background. This indicates the improbable antigenic substitution I160K is dependent on co-occurring S144N and N158D mutations in the H3N2 K lineage. Ultimately, current PLM pseudo-probabilities are a composite metric that conflates protein structural fitness with historical biases in mutational supply. Explicitly decoupling these independent evolutionary processes optimises predictive accuracy for real-world pathogen forecasting and isolates pure protein fitness for synthetic design pipelines.

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